Analysis on the development status of China's aluminum market

by:Zeyi     2021-05-28
Aluminum is a soft, malleable silver-white metal and the third most abundant element in the earth's crust. Aluminum and aluminum alloys have excellent properties such as light weight, easy processing, corrosion resistance, thermal conductivity and strong recyclability, and are used in solar photovoltaic, construction, automobiles, rail transit, electronics, machinery, daily durable consumer goods and packaging materials. Has a wide range of applications.   The output of aluminum in 2019 was 52.522 million tons, the apparent demand was 47.73 million tons, and the production-sales ratio was 90.87%. The industry is experiencing overcapacity. From the perspective of industry imports and exports, in 2019, the total volume of aluminum imports and exports reached 5.5 million tons, of which 350,000 tons were imported and 5.15 million tons were exported. Aluminum exports were much higher than imports. From the perspective of price trends, after May 2018, the price of aluminum fluctuated down, and recently it has rebounded.  The fluctuation of production and sales has risen, and the output is higher than the consumption.   From 2012 to 2017, my country's aluminum production has increased year by year, and in 2017, the aluminum production reached 58.324 million tons, a record high. In 2018, affected by the adjustment of environmental protection policies, the aluminum market was greatly affected, and aluminum output declined. However, with the recovery of the photovoltaic industry and the gradual deepening of the application of aluminum profiles in automotive lightweighting, electronic power, household appliances, new energy vehicles and high-end equipment manufacturing, the market’s demand for aluminum has gradually expanded. In 2019, the output of aluminum has reached 52.522 million tons, gradually getting rid of the impact of environmental protection policy adjustment. The downstream industries where aluminum is mainly applied in my country include new energy photovoltaics, rail transit, automotive lightweighting, medical and environmental protection, electronic appliances, and construction. With the improvement of domestic aluminum profile manufacturing enterprises’ technology, the performance of aluminum profiles has been greatly improved. The breadth and depth of the field has gradually expanded, and industry demand has risen.  Foresight Calculate the apparent demand for my country’s aluminum market based on the output of my country’s aluminum products and the number of imports and exports. From 2012 to 2019, the overall apparent consumption of my country's aluminum market showed a fluctuating growth trend. In 2019, it was 47.73 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.23%.  The production-sales rate is less than 1, and the industry has overcapacity.    Overall, China's aluminum profile market demand is strong, aluminum production is large, and apparent consumption growth is lower than output. From 2012 to 2019, China's aluminum production and sales rate was below 100%, and the production and sales rate in 2019 was 90.87%. The industry has experienced overcapacity.  Exports are greater than imports, and prices have rebounded slightly recently  From the perspective of industry imports and exports, aluminum exports are much higher than imports. my country's aluminum profile processing industry has a large production capacity for rough-processed aluminum, while high-end aluminum and advanced production equipment rely on imports. There are problems such as large production capacity for low-end products and insufficient production capacity for high-end products. According to customs statistics, in 2019, the total volume of aluminum imports and exports reached 5.5 million tons, of which 350,000 tons were imported and 5.15 million tons were exported. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, the price of aluminum showed a fluctuating trend in general. At the beginning of 2017, the price was US$1,784.38/ton. From 2017 to May 2018, the price volatility increased, reaching the peak of US$2291.525/ton in recent years at the end of May 2018; after May 2018 , The price of aluminum fluctuated and fell to US$1456.1/ton at the end of April 2020.
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