Electrolytic aluminum capacity reduction continues to advance, aluminum prices are under short-term pressure

by:Zeyi     2022-01-11
Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said on March 6 that the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production capacity will continue. The government does not provide indicators. Instead, industry associations and enterprises follow the requirements of national laws and regulations, in accordance with the relationship between market supply and demand, and in accordance with the industry structure. Optimize the requirements of adjustment and enterprise reform, and proceed in an orderly manner.   Stimulated by this news, the aluminum sector performed brilliantly on the 6th, with Shenhuo shares and Yunlu shares trading at their daily limits, and China Aluminum and Zhongfu Industrial rose sharply. Industry insiders said that with high inventories and lower costs, the supporting effect of aluminum prices has weakened. At the same time, in the context of the continuous heating up of supply-side reforms, 2018 is expected to become a year of industry integration, entering a situation where the strong will become strong. Increased supply pressure According to data from Baichuan Information, as of February 28, my country’s effective production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 46.145 million tons, with 36.151 million tons started, with an operating rate of 78.34%; the new production capacity of 2.758 million tons has been completed and to be put into operation, and 45.5 have been put into operation The new production capacity is 2.303 million tons, and the new production capacity is 4.262 million tons under construction during the year. In 2018, my country's electrolytic aluminum production scale to be resumed involved 5.122 million tons.   Supply pressure has increased, and the peak consumption season has not yet arrived, and aluminum ingot inventories have repeatedly hit new highs, putting pressure on aluminum prices. According to data from Shanghai Nonferrous Networks, as of March 1, my country’s social inventory of aluminum ingots was 2.126 million tons, an increase of more than 300,000 tons from before the Spring Festival, and continues to set a record high. It is expected to exceed 2.2 million tons in March. As of the beginning of March, the price of alumina has dropped to around 2790 yuan/ton, anode, aluminum fluoride, and cryolite have stabilized at 4125 yuan/ton, 12100 yuan/ton, and 6000 yuan/ton. The domestic average electricity cost is about 0.32 yuan/kWh. . In terms of anodes, the price of long-term pre-baked anodes in Weiqiao in March was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, and anode prices in other regions are expected to follow the decline in the later period.   Huishang Futures said that in recent years, the operating range of aluminum prices has basically been in the cost area. At present, the theoretical complete cost of low, medium and high per ton of aluminum is 13,600 yuan/ton, 14,300 yuan/ton, and 15,000 yuan/ton, respectively. The average cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is basically at the edge of profit or loss.  Industry insiders said that the heating season ended in March and the production capacity of alumina is to be resumed. The increase in supply is expected to be significant. The supply-demand relationship of alumina will gradually turn from a tight balance to an excess, and the price will still be under pressure. In addition, the fall in the prices of important raw materials will lower the production cost of electrolytic aluminum in March, which will weaken the supporting effect of aluminum prices.  Limited new production capacity   On January 17, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the 'Notice on Issues concerning the Implementation of Capacity Replacement by Electrolytic Aluminum Enterprises through Mergers and Reorganizations.' This notice clarifies the method of capacity replacement, the range of indicators that can be used for replacement, and the deadline timetable. That is, before December 31, 2018, through mergers and reorganizations, the same actual controller company internally replaced the official elimination indicators for 2011-2017.  Industry insiders said that the previous problems of unclear policies and cross-regional indicator trading were straightened out, and the stock indicators were revitalized. Under the circumstance that illegal production capacity is shut down, the release of inventory index production capacity will become a source of incremental electrolytic aluminum production capacity.   According to official statistics, approximately 4.5 million tons of production capacity will be eliminated from 2011 to 2017. According to SMM statistics, in 2017, the total replacement index has been announced to complete 4.164 million tons, that is, only about 350,000 tons of elimination targets are available for capacity replacement, and there is still a gap of 2.079 million tons for newly-built projects that have not been announced. Therefore, The remaining gap of about 1.7 million tons of new projects needs to be filled with in-production capacity indicators, and the growth of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is restricted.  Tianfeng Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Chief Analyst Yang Chengxiao believes that in the case of limited capacity growth, especially capacity replacement needs to be carried out within the same actual controller company, it is expected that the electrolytic aluminum industry will enter a year of industry integration in 2018. Those companies with low efficiency and poor management will most likely be merged and reorganized, so that the overall efficiency will be improved and the strong will become strong. At the same time, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission stated that it will continue to promote the elimination of excess capacity in the non-ferrous metal industry. Combined with the recent central inspection team’s feedback on Shandong and Xinjiang’s ineffective control of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, we believe that the electrolytic aluminum supply-side reform policy is still heating up. ————The article comes from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete it.
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