Market expectations for the aluminum industry in the second half of 2020

On July 13, the domestic aluminum ingot market average price was 15,343.33 yuan/ton, and the spot aluminum price exceeded 15,000 yuan/ton for the first time during the year. Just two weeks ago, the domestic aluminum price just exceeded the 4th line. The continuous decline in inventory means The market demand is tight. So in the second half of the year, what are the expectations for the real estate infrastructure industry and the automotive industry at the end of the aluminum industry? Real estate infrastructure industry In the first half of 2020, my country’s real estate market continued to maintain a steady recovery after experiencing a sharp decline in January and February. In general, the market recovery is basically in line with expectations. Affected by the impact of the epidemic, in January-February, except for housing prices, all real estate-related indicators dropped significantly. Among them, the sales area of u200bu200bcommercial housing increased by -39.9% year-on-year, the newly started area increased by -44.9% year-on-year, development investment increased by -16.3% year-on-year, and the price of commercial housing increased by 3.3% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than the same period last year. Since then, the property market as a whole has maintained a steadily declining marginal recovery, and the demand for aluminum construction profiles has recovered rapidly. Therefore, in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, policy support and the completion of pre-engineering projects will be conducive to the recovery of demand for aluminum construction profiles. On the whole, the real estate market in the first half of the year experienced a roller coaster-like market, and it is currently relatively stable. However, entering July, the construction market has also entered a traditional off-season, the thread inventory has slowed down, and even rebounded slightly. Note 7-8 The impact of monthly market off-season on aluminum consumption. The automobile industry recently released monthly data on automobile production and sales by the China Automobile Association. In June, my country’s automobile production and sales reached 2.325 million and 2.194 million, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.5% and 11.6%. This benefited from the effective control of the domestic epidemic and the promotion of consumption policies introduced by local governments such as purchase subsidies, auto sales to the countryside, and relaxation of restrictions on purchases in cities. The cumulative decline in auto production and sales continued to narrow in the second quarter. In the first half of 2020, automobile production and sales were 10.112 million and 10.257 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8% and 16.9%. In the second half of 2020, the auto industry will face greater pressure, and the trend of positive year-on-year growth in monthly sales may not continue. 'The rebound in the auto market in the second quarter was due to the gradual release of the suppressed consumption power from January to March. The trend in the third quarter will probably be the same as that of the same period last year. While the base figure in the fourth quarter of last year was high, it may have a slight negative growth in the same period this year.' Chief Engineer Xu Haidong analyzed. According to the cumulative production and sales in the first half of the year, the domestic automobile market is generally picking up, and the increase in production and sales is gradually obvious, and it is better than the expected decline in cumulative production and sales in the first half of the year. However, because the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled, the country is dependent on foreign countries. And export auto companies will continue to be restricted and hinder growth momentum. Therefore, the market needs to remain cautiously optimistic about the growth of domestic auto production and sales in the second half of the year. Considering that the second half of the year is the peak season for auto production and sales, the amount of aluminum used can reach 7.3-7.5 million Ton. To summarize the above, the current recovery of domestic aluminum demand and various data are good, but it is mainly concentrated in real estate infrastructure. The performance of industrial profiles related to exports and other aspects is weak. There is pressure on aluminum prices in the second half of the year, because domestic demand is at risk of falling Therefore, follow-up needs to focus on changes in the end market.
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