Long and short zinc and aluminum are intertwined, and prices continue to fluctuate

by:Zeyi     2021-12-24
Zinc: In terms of spot, the LME zinc spot premium was US$0.75/ton, and the previous trading day had a discount of US$2.5/ton. Shanghai 0# zinc mainstream traded at 24390-24450 yuan/ton, and 0# Pingfan reported a discount of 10 to 100 yuan/ton on the Shanghai Zinc 1806 contract. There was a slight inquiries on the market to get the goods in bad days, which was better than last Friday. On June 4, LME zinc stocks decreased by 0.07 million tons to 245,000 tons, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts dropped slightly to 13.58%. According to my non-ferrous metals, zinc ingot inventory was 144,600 tons on June 4, an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday. The galvanized stock was 923,100 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from last week. Concept: With the opening of the zinc import arbitrage window, free trade zone inventory clearance flows into the country increased, bonded zone inventory declined, domestic inventory rose slightly, and domestic premiums narrowed. However, due to domestic environmental protection and increasingly stringent regulations, domestic zinc mines are still tight. Initiated to observe the inventory inflows in the bonded area and the changes in domestic social inventories and premiums and discounts. The second half of the year is the peak period for the production of foreign zinc mines. The supply of zinc mines will gradually be released, and the mid-line thinking is still empty. Strategy: Initiate a temporary lookout. Aluminum: In terms of spot, the LME aluminum spot premium was US$5.00/ton, and the discount was US$2.75/ton on the previous trading day. The Shanghai transaction meeting is 14590-14600 yuan/ton, and the monthly discount is 60-50 yuan/ton. The diving occurs during the transaction meeting period, and the spot discount is narrowed. The set maintains a positive attitude toward shipments and no intermediaries have room for manipulation. , At the end of the month, the factors superimposed on the aluminum diving period, the downstream enterprises have a strong look and feel, and the overall transaction is poor. On June 4th, LME aluminum ingot inventory fell by 0.72 million tons to 1.199.2 million tons. On June 4th, according to my non-ferrous metals, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was calculated at 1.931 million tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons from Thursday. Concept: Shanghai Aluminum's short-term long-term short-term staggered, it is estimated to maintain a volatile trend. The implementation of supportive policies for electricity prices in some areas is bad for aluminum prices. However, due to the strengthening of the implementation of the national self-provided power plant policy, the new production capacity in the second quarter was not as expected, and the indirect conversion of other aluminum water into aluminum rods increased. Since the realization of aluminum rods is relatively poor compared to aluminum ingots, the side reaction indicated that short-term consumption is acceptable , The rate of destocking of aluminum ingots is accelerated, which supports the price composition. The Shanghai-London ratio is still at a low level. It is estimated that domestic exports will continue to increase, and domestic aluminum ingots will remain de-allocated. It is estimated that domestic aluminum will continue to fluctuate strongly in the future, and it is initiated to continue to pay attention to inventory changes and the process of new domestic production. Strategy: Looking ahead, focusing on policy orientation, waiting for an opportunity to do more on dips. Harmful points: Inventories are still at historically high levels, and Sino-US commercial disputes are expanding. ————The article comes from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete it.
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